As we enter the second quarter of 2023, we take a look at historical trends to provide perspective on current events. Our first quarter perspectives looks at job growth beating expectations, inflation improvements and reasons for concern, market volatility, and consequences of trying to time the market.

2022 will be remembered as a year when inflation dominated the economic landscape for the first time in decades. Strong consumer demand stressed fragile supply-chains, and the Russian invasion of Ukraine severely impacted the global food and energy markets. Reactions from central banks, particularly in the U.S., have been historically swift, and as we move into 2023, inflation is slowly decreasing. The probability of a global recession in 2023 remains elevated as central banks manage the delicate balance of appropriate monetary policy. In the following pages, we evaluate the current economic environment and its implications for businesses and investors.

Entering the fourth quarter of 2022, there are several historical trends we can use to provide perspective on current events. Our third quarter perspectives look at contributors to headline inflation, yield-to-worst across fixed income sectors, international markets vs. U.S., and S&P 500 index average returns following midterm elections.

As we enter the third quarter of 2022, there are several historical trends we can use to provide some perspective on current events. We take a look at historical recession periods, consumer sentiment index, average annual returns at different inflation rates, and S&P 500 index price after midterm elections.

Investors in 2022 are faced with a backdrop of negative information – from elevated inflationary conditions for consumers to the Russian invasion of Ukraine – and the result has been a drop in financial markets coupled with an increase in economic and market volatility. Find out more in the INTRUST Quarterly Perspectives for Q1 2022.

Global economic growth over the past two years largely has been affected by the mandated shutdowns and fiscal stimulus in response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As the U.S. economy continues to recover in 2022, it faces headwinds of labor shortages, supply chain disruptions, and higher inflation. We evaluate the current economic environment and its implications for businesses and investors.