Wealth Services

Entering the fourth quarter of 2022, there are several historical trends we can use to provide perspective on current events. Our third quarter perspectives look at contributors to headline inflation, yield-to-worst across fixed income sectors, international markets vs. U.S., and S&P 500 index average returns following midterm elections.

The Inflation Reduction Act, signed into law on August 16, 2022, includes health-care and energy-related provisions, a new corporate alternative minimum tax, and an excise tax on certain corporate stock buybacks. Additional funding is also provided to the IRS. Some significant provisions in the Act are discussed below.

In an early July poll, 58% of Americans said they thought the U.S. economy was in a recession, up from 53% in June and 48% in May. Yet many economic indicators, notably employment, remain strong. The current situation is unusual, and there is little consensus among economists as to whether a recession has begun or may be coming soon. Considering the high level of public concern, it may be helpful to look at how a recession is officially determined and some current indicators that suggest strength or weakness in the U.S. economy.