In the INTRUST 2021 Economic Outlook, our view of the economic recovery occurring throughout 2021 is based on several factors, not the least of which is the mitigation of the negative impacts of COVID-19. As the economy improves, the likelihood of inflation and rising interest rates will play an important role in market performance.

Economic conditions at the start of a new decade changed significantly as the pandemic impacted economies across the globe.

As discussed in our Midyear Outlook, our baseline scenario of a sharp rebound in economic activity followed by a long climb to full recovery appears to be playing out.

In January, we published our 2020 Perspectives. At midyear, we find ourselves in a pandemic-induced recession with double-digit unemployment. Markets have plummeted and bounced upward but remain volatile. Read more to learn about INTRUST's midyear perspectives.

In January, the U.S. economy appeared healthy. Unemployment was low. Consumers were confident. Growth prospects remained positive for the foreseeable future. However, the 12-year U.S. economic expansion came to an abrupt halt in March, as effects of COVID-19 reverberated around the globe and across our nation. Now, recession in 2020 seems all but inevitable.

The U.S. economy will likely enter its 12th year of economic expansion in 2020, continuing the longest growth period in history.