2026 Economic Outlook

As we step into 2026, investors face a landscape defined by rapid change, where policy shifts, technological acceleration, and global dynamics converge to shape the economic outlook. This year, the interplay between inflation, labor markets, and Federal Reserve actions remains central, but new forces are also at work. Artificial intelligence continues to transform industries and drive productivity, while tariffs and trade policy add complexity to growth forecasts.

Importantly, the global backdrop is shifting. Geopolitical tensions, evolving alliances, and changing trade patterns are reshaping supply chains, capital flows, and risk premiums. The continued rise of China’s and India’s economies, Europe’s fiscal and competitive challenges, and the evolving role of the U.S. dollar are influencing everything from currency markets to corporate strategy. Institutional shifts in the U.S. and abroad, along with the realignment of global trading partners, make it essential for investors to stay informed and adaptable.

Our team at INTRUST Wealth has reviewed the latest data, debated the big questions, and distilled the themes that matter most for your portfolios and financial goals. In our 2026 Economic Outlook we explore these trends in depth, connecting macroeconomic forces, sector outlooks, and regional dynamics to help you navigate the year ahead with clarity and confidence.

With that foundation established, the Executive Summary below captures the core insights of our 2026 Economic Outlook. It offers a concise overview of the trends shaping the year ahead, while the full report provides a more comprehensive analysis for those wanting the complete picture.

Executive Summary

As we look ahead to 2026, investors face a market defined by transition and resilience. Inflation has cooled, labor markets have eased without breaking, and the Federal Reserve is shifting from aggressive tightening to gradual rate cuts. While recession risks have increased compared to last year, most forecasts—including those from the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) and leading banks—point to continued, albeit slower, economic growth. The anticipated Fed rate cuts and a stable labor market provide a foundation for economic resilience, even as policy uncertainty and global shifts remain in focus.

What's Changed Since Last Year

• Inflation: The big disinflation wave is behind us. Consumer Price Index (CPI) is now trending near the Fed’s target, reducing the urgency for further rate hikes.
• Labor: Unemployment has ticked up but remains historically low. The balance of job openings versus unemployed workers is shifting toward a more traditional balance, which should result in more qualified job seekers for each open position. Wage growth is positive, supporting consumer spending and corporate profitability.
• Fed policy: The Fed has pivoted from aggressive hikes to shallow easing, with 1–2 rate cuts priced in for 2026. This shift supports both equity and fixed income markets.
• Consumer: Household balance sheets remain strong, but the expiration of enhanced Affordable Care Act (ACA) premium tax credits at year-end could double premiums for some, squeezing discretionary spending and potentially rippling into credit markets.
• AI & capex: Investment in artificial intelligence surged in 2025, driving productivity gains. However, 2026 faces electrical grid limitations and permitting bottlenecks that may slow further capex growth.
• Debt & interest: Rising Federal interest expense can crowd out other spending, intensify fiscal strain, and raise questions about long-term sustainability. While 2026 will continue an uncomfortable trend in accelerating federal interest expense, it is unlikely to be a year of reckoning.

Regional Highlights

While national themes set the backdrop, our regional market reviews show distinct local drivers that influence opportunity sets and risk management.

• Wichita / South Central Kansas: Aerospace, manufacturing, and biomedical expansion—plus infill/multifamily housing and airport adjacent investment—support steady growth; skills training (WSU Tech, Butler CC) is narrowing the gap between a shortage of skilled tradespeople and the increasing need for those skills (electricians, welders, etc.).
• Kansas City Metro: Infrastructure (airport, streetcar), the FIFA World Cup, and engineering/data center build outs lift real estate and hospitality; housing demand remains robust in Johnson County.
• Northwest Arkansas: Fast-growing economy led by major employers and healthcare investment; infrastructure and affordable housing are the binding constraints.
• Oklahoma (OKC & Tulsa): Diversifying beyond energy into aerospace, bioscience, and advanced manufacturing; MAPS and tribal investments underpin logistics and healthcare momentum (e.g., Port of Catoosa).
• Manhattan / Junction City: Bioscience and university expansion (NBAF, K-State) set the long run growth path; near-term growth is modest with housing supply constraints.
• Lawrence / Topeka: Airport upgrades, downtown revitalization, and Panasonic adjacent development support activity; childcare shortages and housing affordability remain key labor bottlenecks.
• Harvey County (Newton): Manufacturing and transportation projects (e.g., GAF, Shield AI) drive jobs; apprenticeship pipelines address welding/electrical skill gaps; childcare supply is a limiting factor.
• Butler County: Industrial and agriculture anchors (refinery stability), selective new investment opportunities such as Amazone (technology-driven agricultural equipment) and TerraPower (nuclear power); land values and taxes challenge housing supply.

Investment Outlook & Portfolio Guidance

Corporate profitability is projected to hold up, thanks to strong balance sheets and ongoing investment in technology. However, after three years of robust U.S. stock market performance, equity returns are likely to be solid but revert closer to long-term averages. Investors should temper expectations and focus on quality, diversification, and disciplined risk management.

Flexibility is key. Diversifying across asset classes, sectors, and geographies will help investors navigate surprises, whether policy changes, supply chain disruptions, or shifts in consumer behavior. Staying informed and grounded in fundamentals will be essential for capturing opportunities and managing risks as the world economy continues to evolve.

Read the full 2026 Economic Outlook

Our full 2026 Economic Outlook includes a deeper analysis into all of the topics referenced above, as well as key themes for 2026, tariffs, the agriculture sector, geopolitics, China and Asia, and more.

The INTRUST 2026 Economic Outlook is the consensus of the INTRUST Bank, N.A. (“INTRUST”) Investment Strategy team and is based on third party sources believed to be reliable. INTRUST has relied upon and assumed, without independent verification, the accuracy and completeness of this third party information. INTRUST makes no warranties with regard to the information or results obtained by its use and disclaims any and all liability arising out of the use of, or reliance on the information. The information presented has been prepared for informational purposes only. It should not be relied upon as a recommendation to buy or sell securities or to participate in any investment strategy. The forward-looking perspectives are not intended to, and should not, form a primary basis for any investment decisions. This information should not be construed as investment, legal, tax or accounting advice. Past performance is no guarantee of future results.